Sunday, January 30, 2011


While some cynics will say the world is about to begin spinning out of control, more level heads will acknowledge a very serious situation is taking over the world's landscapes. Civil unrest has raised its ugly head in Tunisia, Ireland, Ecuador, Peru, Italy, Jordan and now Egypt. This could have been predicted....faltering economies, unemployment, rising fuel costs, and sharp increases in the price of food. When these conditions occur in democracies, citizens can vote to change their governments. In more oppressive regimes, they take to the streets to voice their dissatisfactions.
And their voices are being heard around the world at present....and they are toppling governments......the next seemingly being Egypt's Mubarak, a leader, a dictator soon to be looking for a safe haven, a soft landing spot to retire. In fact, Hillary Clinton has publicly called for an "orderly transition."
But in Egypt, more is at stake than a change at the top. For decades now, we have pumped millions and millions of dollars into the Mubarak regime, and much of those resources have resulted in a very well armed Egyptian militia, an entity currently sitting on its hands, unwilling to engage with the protesters,made up of their own countrymen.
Egypt is more than the largest nation in the region. They are a US backed, US ally who has been very valuable in stabling the entire Middle East. And the government is about to topple, for whom we do not know. Normally, we would not give much chance for the radical led Muslim brotherhood to gain power, but in times of civil unrest, extreme voices gain ears. The thirst for change can result in unlikely victors. And should radical Islam elements take power in a country this large, it could set a disastrous example of what can happen in other Islamic countries in the region.
Certainly no one would be shocked if such a rise took place in Iran, one of the most oppressive governments in the world. And such victories in neighboring countries embolden others, and give voice to extremely radical voices within.
Clinton and Obama need to become fully engaged, at least in the backgrounds of the current situations in the region. Like a bad game of dominoes, the entire region is aching for a tilting in the balance of power, and if you are viewed as a U.S. ally, a U.S. sympathiser, you may become a marked man by your citizens.
You think the United States should be very worried? What about Israel? With anti-Jewish sentiment everywhere in the region, and new, more radical elements assuming power, especially in countries like Egypt, who is more than capable, more than adequately armed thanks to us, to do some real damage.... we cannot, cannot afford to become more militarily engaged in the region than we already are. So who will rise up and attempt to stabilize the region? Our friends are extremely nervous, at least as nervous as the more radical anti-U.S. sentiments are empowered, and emboldened. This is their moment. Will it come to fruition? Time will tell.

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