"The current bundle of economic troubles should doom any Republican hoping to succeed George Bush," says NBC's Chris Matthews. "It's almost impossible to believe that another Republican could get elected," insists Katty Kay, the BBC's Washington-based correspondent.
Given the national climate for the previous 7+ years, is a Democrat, any Democrat, a "slam dunk" to get into the White House this year? Not so fast. Yes, the polling data looks very strong. Obama Leads McCain by double digits for the nation, and is picking up strong support in the swing, or so called "purple states," so called because they could go red, or blue. And, a recent survey of Republicans indicate only a 53% job approval for the present administration. Clearly, Obama has a leg up on McCain, especially in the area of financing, which will allow Barack to campaign in all 50 states, and in effect determine where the Republican candidate should, and must spend his limited funding, even in formerly slam dunk Republican strongholds.
However, in order for the Obama campaign to be able to keep its change manifesto, it desperately needs to make the case that the election of the Senator from Arizona is merely a reaffirmation of the Bush administration; in effect, a vote for McCain would be a vote to re-elect the President. This may prove problematic as McCain back peddles his way towards the center, and emphasizes his reputation as a political "maverick."
Does Obama move to the center, as many are predicting, or does he stay who he is? He is no longer the fresh face of the Democratic party. His face has been plastered over the airways for well over a year now, and the American people are beginning to see him as just another politician, rather than the messiah like movement he represented in the primaries.
His record is very clear. He is untested in foreign policy. His record in office clearly leans left, with the nonpartisan National Journal rating him the most liberal U.S. senator. When asked this month by ABC News when he had ever broken with liberal orthodoxy and taken risks with his base – as Bill Clinton did on trade, culture and welfare – Mr. Obama had little to say. At a meeting of Obama voters this week, some bemoaned the fact that many of their friends backed him solely because of his cool "name brand" and vague message of change. Obviously as he nears the finish line, his vagueness, however ill-conceived will not bode well for him. He must carve out platforms out the fresh face persona that once defined him. The primaries are much different, in a primary, the voters will accept the cotton candy approach, but in the election of a President, they expect something more solidified. They want granite.
In the primaries, Obama simply had to mirror the stands and positions of Hillary Clinton, and all things being equal, would you rather vote for an honest breathe of fresh air, or the queen bitch of American politics who is capable of anything? To be elected President, Obama will have to dive into the issues, and this is just the opening McCain needs.
In the Democratic primaries, Mr. Obama's ideas were rarely challenged. In the fall, they will be. "This election is remarkably fluid with two non incumbents running," says pollster Scott Rasmussen. "Some 30% of voters say they could easily change their minds, and a third of independent voters aren't paying much attention yet."
And on many of the core issues, the country continues to lean right of center. In last weeks Washington Post polling, 50% of voters favored a small government with fewer services while 45% wanted a bigger government with more services, much the same as they did in June of 2004.
As our economy continues to be sluggish, how much tolerance will the American voter show towards the numerous social spending promises Obama, and the left are suggesting. Basic mathematics will show he is proposing far more expenditures than the simple ending of the Bush tax cuts could ever manage to pay for. And given the current crisis at the tax pump, will the centrists, not to mention the liberal base, continue their ecological philosophies, or will they say the hell with John Muir, and authorize the creation of the 45 nuclear plants and numerous off shore drilling rigs McCain is advocating, a seemingly small price to pay if it allows them to continue to drive their Hummers and SUV's.
No, this is far from over. Given huge double digit leads approaching the general election, the Democrats have shown the propensity to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. And history certainly bares this out, given that in recent memory, the only liberal Presidents have been a one term Jimmy Carter, and a two term Bill Clinton. John Kerry and Michael Dukakis are very recent examples of campaign derailing. The key for Obama, it seems to me is to stay true to his beliefs, and keep the Democratic strategists at arms length.
And that is "The World......According to Kimba." Thanks for reading.
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