WILL THIS ELECTION RACE BE DETERMINED SOLELY ON RACE?

Now that the fallout from the New Hampshire primary has finally settled, the main question is, why were the polls so incredibly inaccurate? Why Clinton in the lead by double digits, then dropping down to virtually nothing? Why did polls show a serge ahead into the lead for Obama in the week preceding the primary? Then, inexplicably, Clinton holds the lead and eventually wins, while exit polling determined that more people were stating their voting preference for Obama?

Answer number one is that clearly Hillary draws a substantial amount of her voting support from the poor, and from less educated voting blocks, which were not sampled, at least to the degree and extent that more affluent and well educated groups were.

But this still does not explain the exit polling administered at many voting precinct locations. Why did so many more people tell an exit surveyor of their vote cast for Obama than was officially tallied? Many experts and political pundits are pointing to something called the Bradley factor, defined below.

The term Bradley effect or Wilder effect refers to a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate. Specifically, there have been instances in which statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either genuinely undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the non-white candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate. This reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well.
Researchers who have studied the issue theorize that some white voters give inaccurate responses to polling questions because of a fear that they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced. Some research has suggested that the race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor into that concern. At least one prominent researcher has suggested that with regard to pre-election polls, the discrepancy can be traced in part by the polls' failure to account for general conservative political leanings among late-deciding voters.

Will this election be decided purely on race alone? One would like to think not, but lets not be naive. The chance for a black American to live in a period of time from the atrocities of racial discrimination into the civil unrest of the sixties, the passage of the 1968 Civil Rights Bill, and then to actually participating in the election of a Black president in one lifetime is a mind boggling event.

Can one such American pass on this opportunity and not feel a traitor to his / her own heritage? Will Hillary draw voters in from the voting electorate simply because she is white (and because she is a woman)? Will liberal Blacks vote for Hillary simply because they fear that the United States is not capable of electing a minority (racial), and in voting for Obama, will actually participate in the (undesired) election of a conservative?

Time will tell, of course. But in the speculation of the questions above, one must also factor in the Clinton persona in the black community (remember Bill being called the nations "first black President?"). These, and many more factors have made this election particularly of interest to all of America. The dichotomy of differences between Hillary and Barack is inescapable; in age, in race, in gender, and in personality.

In my mind, there IS one centrist argument to be considered, namely that voting on the terms of race alone is bigotry, and any black American who votes for Obama based on his race alone, is no better than the white voters who have oppressed African Americans for our countries first 200 years plus.

Of course there is one troubled voting faction who can't win or lose....black women. Do they vote for Obama for his skin, or Hillary for her vagina? For political observers (and bloggers), these are the best of times, and the worst of times.

And that is the World According to Kimba. Thanks for reading (and voting)